Betting on Favourites in Flat Maiden Turf Races
According to my database, there has been a steady decline in the number of flat maiden turf races. If we look in the year 2003 there were 1158 races, five years later that was reduced further to 1062 races and last year in 2016 it dipped below a thousand races with only 918 maiden events.
Since 2003, if you had backed every favourite in every single maiden turf race until the time of writing then you would have had 15558 bets, won 6443 times representing a win strike rate of 41.35% but made a loss of 882.66 per euro or sterling to level stakes at SP.
This highlights the issue of those believing that a good win strike rate (in horse racing terms) guarantees a profitable return when the opposite can hold true and further demonstrates the point that value is key if you wish to make a profit over the long term.
One area that may be able to turn a negative outcome to a positive one is to look at which trainers do well in these type of events and then use drill down functionality to get a broader picture if one should strike a bet given the available stats at hand.
Obviously, we are looking at favourites here, and so we would expect a good strike rate but showing a profit at the same time from the overall performance, although we would have to accept a lower return due to the median price of those that head the market.
Below are a few trainers that may be worth following when they have a runner that goes off favourite in a turf maiden race.
Luca Cumani
Bets: 192 Wins: 93 Win Strike rate: 51.10% P/L +27.15
Additional notes; Interestingly this trainer has shown a profit with every horse aged from two to five years old, with the vast majority of winners deriving from three-year-olds.
Tom Dascombe
Bets: 89 Wins: 41 Win Strike rate: 46.07% P/L +11.24
Additional Notes; Trainer does just as well with those making their racecourse debut than those with previous racecourse experience and in particular with juveniles (aged two years old).