Avoiding the traps and following sound advice

One popular trap is something called the “Gamblers Fallacy” where people pick and choose selections after long sequences, their logic being that the selection now has more chance of winning.  For example if you are betting on heads and tails, and Heads has come up 10 times in a row – you place a bet on tails as this is now more likely to happen – (maybe because you have been patient ??) But mathematically this is NOT TRUE and why it’s called the “Gamblers Fallacy” simply because the true chances of heads happening again are exactly the same as on the first throw. Another devious trap is called “Martingale” and it’s been around for years in various guises – the method involves doubling your stakes after a loss. You pick an event where the outcome is likely – let’s use heads and tails again as an example – you bet 1 point on heads – and tails comes up – so next time you bet 2 points, if you lose again you bet 4 points – the logic is that because it’s a 50/50 chance you will easily win and get your money back. Why it ALWAYS fails is because it’s a horrendous use of money management – Yes many times you will win without your stakes becoming too big, but there will be JUST THE ONE TIME the bookies need, when the stakes get very big, very quickly (exponential ) 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256 etc.. etc.. etc  and it’s not just the stake size that’s devastating, it’s also the bank that’s so quickly eaten into as you need to add the previous stake amounts together, and we haven’t even touched on poor odds or liquidity. The examples I have given are relatively very simple and yet so many people find it so hard to understand (or resist) maybe because it’s counter-intuitive to human nature. The worst case scenario is where these two traps are combined together, where neither traps are obvious as they are subtly disguised. Rest assured there are always people ready to take advantage of this “human nature” with some very cleverly disguised “systems” (traps) sold on the internet daily making the seller rich and sending the buyer on a quick route to the poor house. There are many variations on the theme and it all adds to the bookies coffers and they love it. This is why sites such as Betadvisor are so important – stick to good sound advice and be patient. I hope this little piece has been helpful – Jason Mills.]]>