1. When you first joined BetAdvisor, you had a rough start, what were you thinking at the time and could you forsee a turnaround like the one that came along?
The law of averages dictates that bad runs will occur and any person wishing to be a professional backer of horses must accept this first and foremost. If you don’t, you cannot win in the long term because if the mind set has not been programmed to accept losing runs then you will end up adopting the wrong approach which will inevitably lead to more losses. One of the most important aspect of my betting comes from positive thinking and so if I happen to go on a bad run, I like to review my past betting records and watch old footage of big wins, all of which reminds me what I am capable of achieving, that can help in reconnecting the right thought processes in adverse times and turrning negative outcomes into positive results over the long term.2. Without giving too much away, how do you make your selections, is it an analytical approach, looking at a horses form, do you have a mathematical model or do you have another way of coming to a decision?
3. Have there been any races that have stood out since you joined BetAdvisor?I would say it’s a combination of the three above but without doubt the most overriding factor has to be the price. I would try to ascertain which horses I believe cannot win which usually means I have a list of a few remaining contenders that could be of interest and a look at their respective prices will always dictate the way forward.
All winners provide some form of satisfaction but of course winners where the markets have got it completely wrong to start off with tend to be the most satisfying. On the all weather, Riflessione who was advised at 16-1 and returned at 4-1, On the turf, Discoteca at 12-1 which returned at 9-2 and over the Jumps, Kayf Commander where 14-1 was far too big before he came in at 5-1. There are far too many to mention but I would also say what also gives me great pleasure is when more than one winner comes in on any given any given day, I know then that my investors have had a really good day.4. How much time do you spend working on your selections?
Each different type of race will involve different complexities to solve, and so time spent on each race can vary. When I was much younger, I would spend hours on end breaking down every conceivable angle but that’s certainly not the case any longer, for two reasons, to avoid burn out and secondly if you spend too long studying a race does that not tell you it’s a difficult race, one where you should probably give it a quick swerve? I also think if you spend too long studying one particular race you are missing other potential opportunities due to a lack of time. I would like to think the experience I have gained over time allows me to summarise a race fairly quickly. The one thing that I always do after I have come to a conclusion is to take a mini break and revisit the race with fresh impetus, just to ensure that I am content to go with my initial view. There are so many factors to consider, so I find having a checklist of the relevant variables very helpful.We gave our readers the chance to ask Aiden a question, here is what they came up with: 5. Two fold Q…Whats the top, one thing, that gets your initial interest in a horse. Also the top one thing that makes you avoid a horse. (From Scott)
The answer to both questions is the same which is price. From a form perspective any unexposed individual who has overcome a couple of disadvantages to run better than his/her finishing position suggests, will usually be of interest. I am not necessarily looking for a horse that has overcome any bias by winning its race because I know it is likely to be reflected in its price the next time it runs. I avoid all horses that are far too short in the market where they have not proven themselves in the conditions, which is very different from horses that haven’t proven themselves in the conditions but are worth taking a chance because it’s compensated by the price on offer. I hope that makes sense!6. Is being born with a talent to spot winners enough or does it need to be combined with analysis and hard work as well? (From Goncalo)
I would love to think I was born with a talent to spot winners but that is far from the truth, it does require a lot of dedication. Thankfully I am so passionate about the work that I do that it isn’t a chore and actually provides me with a lot of pleasure trying to unravel the complexities of each race under consideration.]]>