Can you tell us about your recent tipster history and how you have arrived at BetAdvisor?
I started out in January 2010 with a simple idea of building a football ratings model that could be used by myself and others to win money betting on football games. I was coming off the back of a few years of successful betting on horseracing and I was looking for a new challenge. I was also keen to move towards a more systematic approach for my betting and using a football ratings model would allow me to do this.
I spent the second half of the 2009/10 season playing about with ideas in Excel, collecting data, reading historical journals and my first rating algorithm was built in the Summer of 2010. This rating algorithm covered the top 5 leagues in England and the Scottish Premier League. A second set of ratings soon followed and at the start of the 2010/11 season, I had two distinct set of football ratings for all games in these leagues. These ratings were used to develop systems and the first TFA systems were proofed during the 2010/11 season.
All 11 systems were proofed to a free email subscription list, a private forum, in advance on the TFA blog and to the Secret Betting Club. At the end of the season, all 11 systems were masively profitable, with ROI’s ranging from 4.3% to 26.2%. The blog can be found here: http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.co.uk/
During the Summer of 2011, a 3rd set of ratings were developed for the UK leagues along with some other bespoke systems I developed. The Football Analyst service was also launched via the blog and I had my first paying subscribers. There were 20 systems proofed in total during the 2011/12 season.
19 of the 20 systems were profitable during the season, with 11 of the systems having an ROI of 9%+. The top two systems had ROI’s of 25%+. Results were also monitored to various Asian Handicaps and these results are available on the blog. Many subscribers had already started using the AH results to construct portfolios of systems to meet their own betting needs.
The Football Analyst service was upgraded to the Secret Betting Club’s Hall of Fame during the Summer of 2012. The systems have had 15 profitable months from 18 months of bets to date.
The next stage for the service is to move into the major European Leagues (Italy, France, Spain & Germany) and apply the same rating techniques that have worked so well in the UK leagues. In total, there will be 41 systems live next season.
In August 2012, The Football Analyst service closed for the 2012/13 season with a full membership quota of 75 members. Memberships have been severely limited in order to protect odds for those following the systems.
I was recently approached by BetAdvisor to ask if I was interested in creating a unique TFA system that could be followed by their clients. Given the reputation of BetAdvisor and the chance to pit my wits against some of the best football tipsters in the world, I thought it was a great opportunity for me to test one of my systems out against the best football tipsters.
For the 2012/13 season, a system for the UK leagues will be available to purchase through BetAdvisor and I am proofing a new European system to the BetAdvisor tipster academy this season.
What can a subscriber expect from your service this season?
The great thing about following a 100% fully automated system approach is that I can look back at past seasons to see how the system would have performed. One advantage of my other systems to date has been the ability to use the historical backtesting to test how the systems performed and then checking how they perform in a live environment.
I have applied the same methodical process for the new BetAdvisor system and I can share the results of 4 seasons of fully backtested results (2006 to 2009). In addition, I have the 2010 and 2011 results which are tested in a live environment which makes them much more reliable. Even before the season starts, I have a very good idea of what to expect from the BetAdvisor system this season.
An ROI of 20% was achieved across 770 bets in the 4 backtested seasons. During live testing for the past two seasons, an ROI of 13.9% has been achieved. The aim for this season would be an ROI in the region of 13%-15% on the BetAdvisor system.
These returns are to prices that are highly achievable and hopefully beatable in practice if shopping around and using a wide selection of bookmakers.
Can you discuss your betting philosophy and how it may vary from other tipsters?
I think the biggest difference between myself and other tipsters is probably the number of bets I have every week on the football. There is no emotion involved in the selection of the bets, no team news, no subjective factors at all. All bets are 100% statistically based, driven from rating algorithms and models that have been tested on ten years of data and tens of thousands of bets. Many tipsters think it is impossible to have a significant edge over a number of leagues or a large number of bets but my systems have shown this to be incorrect.
I have now proofed 8,267 bets over two seasons with an overall ROI of 8.6%. There isn’t a football service in the world who has proofed more bets than my systems in the last two seasons I think. This season, with the new European leagues, I expect my systems to proof around 12,000 bets across 10 different leagues and like the first two seasons, I hope all systems will be able to create profits.
My philosophy is clear. Find a profitable edge and try to maximise it as much as you can. Return on Investment is for show, Return on Capital is what drives profitability. If I can turn over my betting bank many times a season, I will make much more money than being very selective and only selecting the very best bets. That’s the beauty of the systems I’ve created.
Do you find yourself getting emotionally caught up in matches even though the selections have been made by a system?
When I am betting, like most people, I do get caught up in the matches I’ve bet on and seeing a last minute goal go against my team or sending off changing the game always hurts a little. Importantly, due to the fact the bets are all system based, my mental state can never interfere with the future selections and one great advantage of following a system approach to betting is that the system doesn’t know it is on a winning run or a losing run.
No matter how great a tipster someone is, if they have had 10 winners in a row or 10 losers in a row, it will affect their judgement, even if they don’t know it. My systems will never deviate from the long-run selection process and therefore, the confidence subscribers get from following the bets tends to be greater than the confidence generated from following an individual tipster.
What do you see as the future for your service?
This is a good question. Ideally, I would like to get to the stage where my main source of income was from gambling and helping others win money from following my selections. I have a good career at the moment in the financial services industry and wouldn’t give that up without good reason but at the moment, I’m not sure there is anyone on the planet who has as many profitable football systems as I currently have. Not only do I have many profitable systems, I also have some of the most profitable systems on the planet. A good combination I think.
In the short-term, I want to establish myself on BetAdvisor and after this season, I would hope to be competing against the top football tipsters on the site. My historical proofing record is as good as any service in the market and I’ve been given a great opportunity to work with BetAdvisor to establish myself as a top tipster and take my football tipping to the next level. I aim to grab that opportunity with both hands.
Long-term, I would love to continue to work with the subscribers at my website and the clients at BetAdvisor to help as many people make profits as possible.]]>
